Economie mondială

Introduction

The global economy has undergone dramatic changes over the past 60 years. In the early 1950s, the world economy was essentially divided between developed or industrialized countries in the “North” and developing or non-industrialized countries in the “South.” Developed countries, excluding Japan, at that time accounted for 90% of world manufacturing output and 90% of world exports of manufactured goods. Production remained largely enclosed within national boundaries and trade patterns reflected the respective country specializations. Inputs for most products were sourced within national borders. In addition to a large imbalance in the structure of production and exports, there was a dramatic imbalance in living standards and political power as well.

From the 1950s to the mid-1990s, these imbalances began to reverse gradually. By 1995, for example, the advanced countries’ share of manufacturing output had fallen to 80%. But the narrowing of the great 20th century divide between advanced and developing countries accelerated rapidly over the past two decades with traditional production, trade, and finance patterns being replaced by new and more balanced configurations.

Spurred by the information technology (IT) revolution, trade liberalization and other economic reforms, the entry of an estimated 2 billion people into the labor force as a result of the breakdown of the Soviet bloc and the opening of China, and the freer movement of capital and technology from developed countries to developing countries, the size of the global economy doubled over the decade preceding the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, increasing from $31 trillion in 1999 to $62 trillion in 2008. While the growth reached practically every region of the world and encompassed dozens of developing countries, a handful of large developing countries—led by China, India, and Brazil—accounted for a major share of the global growth. Other emerging economies with large populations, such as Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Vietnam, also grew at a rapid pace. This faster growth has enabled developing countries to expand their share of global GDP, rising from around one-fifth of global GDP in 2000 to more than one-third of world output today, fueling speculation that the world’s economic balance of power is rapidly shifting away from the United States and Europe toward rising powers in Asia and Latin America.

In addition to altering global GDP rankings, the changes in the global economy have affected the centers of economic growth, the location of manufacturing, and international trade patterns. Buttressed by their exporting success and rising incomes, developing countries are also becoming more important players in the international financial system. If current trends persist, the shifts in wealth and power could become more pronounced over the next several decades.

The Changing Global Economic Landscape

Driven by technological changes that have reduced the costs of communication and transportation, a dramatic increase in the world supply of labor, and a reduction of trade barriers, broad shifts in economic activity from developed to developing countries have taken place over the past two decades. The biggest change involves a long-term shift in economic power from advanced to a handful of large developing countries that have grown twice as fast as advanced countries for more than a decade. These rising economic powers have become increasingly important generators of world economic growth. Their share of global trade has increased significantly, with trade and investment between developing countries (South-South trade and investment) becoming an important new force in the global economy. These countries now export a diversified range of manufactured products and are actively upgrading their ability to produce more sophisticated and higher value-added products.

These trends have been accompanied by a major shift in the location of manufacturing from advanced to developing countries, particularly to Asia. Often referred to as “Factory Asia,” this development has been driven by the proliferation of global supply chains that rely on significant amounts of goods and services inputs from different countries, including from the United States.

In this new environment, countries no longer specialize exclusively in producing finished products, but rather in specific stages of the production process.

The rising economic powers have also increased their financial holdings and wealth and are becoming more important players in international financial markets. While a dominant share of financial assets, financial centers, and financial regulatory power remains concentrated in the United States and Europe, these emerging economies have accumulated large volumes of foreign

exchange reserves, established sovereign wealth funds, borrowed capital from international financial markets, attracted foreign direct investment, and begun investing some of their assets abroad. Corporations based in these countries are playing an increasingly prominent role in global business and cross-border investment, often competing with U.S. and European multinationals for natural resources, technology, and investment in other developing countries. Singapore, Hong Kong, and Shanghai are growing in importance as financial centers and will perhaps rank someday with the traditional hubs of New York, London, Frankfurt, and Tokyo. As their role in international trade and investment increases, demand for emerging market currencies is also likely to grow over time, perhaps paving the way for an international monetary system with more than one key reserve currency.

As a result of these changes, the long-standing division between advanced and developing countries has eroded, particularly for the handful of rising economic powers. The advanced or developed countries may still be the richest countries in terms of per capita incomes, but their economies may no longer be the largest, the fastest-growing, or the most dynamic. This development, in turn, has implications for U.S. economic well-being and global economic leadership that are subject to debate. Key changes in the global economy are documented in more detail below.

Shifts in Global Production and Trade

World GDP Rankings

The balance of international economic power is shifting from the United States and European powers that have dominated the world economy since the end of World War II to a few dozen developing countries located in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. As the world economy has grown larger, many economists emphasize that the shift in economic power is relative (not absolute) and that, on balance, a larger economic pie benefits everyone.

While there is often debate about which developing countries to include in any list of rising economic powers, the growing role of developing countries as a broad grouping is well documented in Figure 1.3 As shown, the advanced economies’ share of global economic activity

declined from 80% in the period between 1960 and 1972 to 57% in 2008-2009, a 23 percentage point drop. During these same time periods, the emerging economies’ share of global economic

activity rose from 17% to 39%, a 22 percentage point increase.

On a more disaggregated basis, as shown in Figure 3, the United States remains the largest economy in the world, although its share dropped nine percentage points, from 33% of the world economy between 1960 and 1972 to 24% in 2008-2009. The share of the G-7 (an economic and political grouping of developed countries consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and the EU-15 (the initial group that comprised the European Union until 2004) fell by even more. On the other hand, the three largest emerging economies—China, Brazil, and India—saw their shares of world GDP rise from 6% between 1960 and 1972 to 23% in 2008-2009, a gain of 17 percentage points.